F & M Poll: Barletta Leads Kanjorski by 5%

For immediate release– Wednesday, 10/15/08 Pennsylvania 11th Congressional District Poll

Please find attached and below the results of the October 2008 Franklin and Marshall College Poll of registered 11th congressional district voters produced at Franklin and Marshall College in Lancaster, PA. Complete results can be found in the attachment or at http://politics.fandm.edu.

Key Findings:

1) Republican challenger Lou Barletta leads Democratic incumbent Paul Kanjorski by five points (40% to 35%) among registered voters in the district, while 24% are undecided. Barletta’s lead has been nearly cut in half since last month, when he led by nine points (44% to 35%).

2) The economy (29%) is cited as the most important issue in the vote choice for the US House race, up from 21 percent in mid-September, and is followed by government/politicians (16%) and immigration (12%). Immigration has declined by five points since last month when it was cited by 17 percent of respondents.

3) Kanjorski leads among those who cite the economy as the most important issue in their vote choice, (43% to 31%), but Barletta leads among those who cite immigration, (81% to 7%), and government/politicians, (57% to 32%).

4) Barletta leads among males, (44% to 31%), among whites, (40% to 35%), among veterans, (52% to 29%), and voters with incomes over $75,000, (49% to 26%). Kanjorski has the edge among voters with incomes less than $35,000, (47% to 29%), among Catholics, (43% to 34%), among non-whites, (46% to 23%), and among union households, (42% to 32%). Female voters divide about evenly.

5) Kanjorski’s support among registered Democrats remains weak – with only 52% indicating they will vote for him. Another ominous sign is that fewer than two voters in five (35%) believe he deserves reelection.

6) Barack Obama has widened his lead in the 11th congressional district from three points in mid-September, (43% to 40%), to nine points, (46% to 37%), now.

7) Obama holds a sizeable lead among women, (49% to 32%), non-whites, (75% to 25%), and Catholics, (52% to 32%). McCain has an advantage among Protestants, (47% to 33%), fundamentalist Christians, (55% to 29%), veterans, (50% to 37%). McCain leads among independents (49% to 29%).

These results and the attached analyses are based on the findings of interviews conducted between Oct 8-12, 2008. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College under the direction of the poll’s Director, Dr. G. Terry Madonna, Head Methodologist, Berwood Yost, and Project Manager, Brad Nankerville. The data included in this release represent the responses of 586 registered Pennsylvanians. Telephone numbers for the survey were randomly selected from state voter registration lists, and respondents were randomly selected from within each household. The sample error for registered voters is +/- 4.0 percent. A complete description of the methodology can be found in the attachment.

Dr. G. Terry Madonna
Director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs
Director, Franklin and Marshall College Poll
Professor of Public Affairs
Franklin & Marshall College
P.O. Box 3003
Lancaster, Pa. 19604
(717) 291-4052 Office
(717 575-2164 Cell
717 358-4666 Fax
[email protected]

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