F & M Poll: Kelly Leads Dahlkemper

Subject: Franklin & Marshall College Poll-Pa 3rd congressional district

For immediate release: Wednesday, September 22, 2010.

The Franklin & Marshall College Poll…the 19th consecutive year of polling in Pennsylvania

Please find attached and below the results of the September, 2010 Franklin & Marshall College Poll of voters in Pennsylvania’s 3rd congressional district. Complete results can be found in the attachment or at http://politics.fandm.edu.
Key Findings

• Mike Kelly has a slight advantage over incumbent Kathy Dahlkemper among all registered adults, 42% to 38%, with about one in five (20%) adults still undecided. Kelly’s advantage is slightly larger among those more likely to vote, 44% to 38%, with 18% undecided. The survey finds that Kelly’s advantage increases as the likely voter screen becomes more restrictive.

• Kelly leads Dahlkemper in every county that constitutes the 3rd District, except for Erie.

• Less than two in five (38%) registered adults in the district rate Representative Dahlkemper’s job performance as "excellent" or "good." About the same proportion (39%) believe she deserves re-election while almost half (47%) believes it is time for a change.

• Many registered adults in the 3rd CD are still undecided about their choices for US Senate (37%) and Governor (31%). Pat Toomey leads Joe Sestak in the district among all registered adults, 34% to 28%, and among likely voters, 37% to 30%. Tom Corbett leads Dan Onorato among registered adults, 41% to 28%, and among likely voters, 43% to 27%.

• Unemployment and the economy (48%) are the primary issues facing respondents and their families in the district.

• The positive job performance ratings for both President Obama (36%) and Governor Rendell (30%) are low in the district but are similar to their overall state-wide ratings.

Methodology

The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted September 14-19, 2010. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College under the direction of the poll’s Director Dr. G. Terry Madonna, Head Methodologist Berwood Yost, and Senior Project Manager Angela Knittle. The data included in this release represent the responses of 482 registered adult residents of the 3rd congressional district in Pennsylvania, including 222 Democrats, 216 Republicans, 35 registered as Independent/Other, and 9 who refused to identify party. Telephone numbers for the survey were randomly generated using state voter registration lists. The sample error for registered adults is +/- 4.5 percentage points and is slightly higher for registered Democrats (+/- 6.6 percentage points) and registered Republicans (+/- 6.7 percentage points). The subsample of likely voters (n=418) has a sample error of +/- 4.8 percentage points.

The Franklin & Marshall College Poll is produced in conjunction with the Philadelphia Daily News, WGAL-TV (South Central PA), Pittsburgh Tribune Review, WTAE-TV (Pittsburgh), WPVI-TV6/ABC (Philadelphia), Times-Shamrock Newspapers, Harrisburg Patriot-News, and Lancaster Newspapers. It may be used in whole or in part, provided any use is attributed to Franklin & Marshall College.

Dr. G. Terry Madonna
Director, Center for Politics and Public Affairs
Director, Franklin and Marshall College Poll
Professor of Public Affairs
Franklin & Marshall College
P.O. Box 3003
Lancaster, PA. 17604
(717) 291-4052 Office
(717) 575-2164 Cell
(717) 358-4666 Fax
[email protected]