Franklin & Marshall College NationalPoll: McCain Leads Obama by 2%

For immediate release Thursday, 9/25/08

Please find attached and below the results of the September national Franklin and Marshall College Poll produced at Franklin and Marshall College in Lancaster, PA in partnership with Hearst-Argyle. Complete results can be found in the attachment or at http://politics.fandm.edu/.

Key Findings:

1) John McCain/Sarah Palin lead Barack Obama/Joe Biden nationally by two percentage points (45% to 43%) among registered voters with 10% undecided. The June Franklin and Marshall College poll showed Obama leading McCain by 6 points (42% to 36%).

2) McCain has an advantage among men (52% to 37%), those over 55 (48% to 37%), whites (53% to 35%), fundamentalist Christians (60% to 30%), military veterans (58% to 29%), and among Southerners (50%to 36%). McCain also has a small advantage among independents (43% to 37%). Obama leads among women (48% to 38%), those between 18-34 years of age (49% to 39%), Catholics (45% to 41%), blacks (85% to 2%), and those living in the Northeast (53% to 35%).

3) A substantial majority (73%) of registered American voters believe the country is off on the wrong track, and more than a third (38%) are worse off financially this year than last. Obama is the choice of those who say the country is off on the wrong track (53% to 33%), while McCain has substantial support from those who feel the country is moving in the right direction (82% to 12%). Obama leads among those whose personal finances are worse off compared to last year (55% to 28%), and McCain does well among those whose personal finances are better than last year (63% to 28%).

4) The economy (44%), moral values (10%) and the Iraq War (9%) are most often mentioned as the issues influencing presidential vote choices. Obama leads McCain among registered voters who are primarily concerned with the economy (55% to 31%) and the Iraq War (51% to 39%), while McCain leads among values voters (73% to 18%).

These results and the attached analyses are based on the results of interviews conducted September 15-21, 2008. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College under the direction of the poll’s Director, Dr. G. Terry Madonna, Head Methodologist, Berwood Yost, and Project Managers, Jennifer Harding and Brad Nankerville. The data included in this release represent the responses of 1,320 registered voters in the United States. Telephone numbers for the survey were generated using random digit dialing, and respondents were randomly selected from within each household. Survey results were weighted using an iterative weighting algorithm. The sample error for registered adults is +/- 2.7 percent.

Dr. G. Terry Madonna
Director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs
Director, Franklin and Marshall College Poll
Professor of Public Affairs
Franklin & Marshall College
P.O. Box 3003
Lancaster, Pa. 19604
(717) 291-4052 Office
(717) 575-2164 Cell
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