Franklin & Marshall Poll: Barletta Leads Kanjorski by 9 Points

FRANKLIN AND MARSHALL COLLEGE POLL Lancaster, PA

For immediate release Wednesday, 9/17/08 Pennsylvania 11th congressional district poll

Please find attached and below the results of the September 2008 Franklin and Marshall College Poll of registered 11th congressional district voters produced at Franklin and Marshall College in Lancaster, PA. Complete results can be found in the attachment or at http://politics.fandm.edu/.

Key Findings:

1) Republican challenger Lou Barletta leads Democratic incumbent Paul Kanjorski by nine points (44% to 35%) among registered voters in the district, while 21% are undecided.

2) The economy (21%) is cited as the most important issue in the vote choice for the US House race, and is followed closely by government/politicians (19%) and immigration (17%).

3) Kanjorski leads among those who cite the economy as the most important issue in their vote choice, (41% to 31%), but Barletta leads among those who cite immigration, (84% to 7%) and government/politicians, (55% to 35%).

4) Barletta leads among males (49% to 36%) and among females, (39% to 35%), and among Catholics, (43% to 38%), veterans (59%to 30%) and among union households the contest is even at 42% each. Kanjorski has the edge among voters with incomes less than $35,000, (42% to 40%), and among non-whites, (31% to 23%).

5) Importantly, Kanjorski’s support among registered Democrats is weak– with only 51% at the moment indicating they will vote for him. Another ominous sign is that fewer than two voters in five (35%) believe he deserves reelection.

6) Barack Obama has a narrow lead in the district, (43% to 40%), with 14% undecided.

7) Obama holds a sizeable lead among women (44% to 36%), younger residents, 18-34, (50% to 39%), non-whites (58% to 25%), Catholics, (47% to 38%) and college graduates (48% to 38%). McCain has an advantage among Protestants (46% to 33%), fundamentalist Christians (49% to 35%), veterans (52% to 31%). McCain leads among independents (47% to 31%).

These results and the attached analyses are based on the findings of interviews conducted between September 9-14, 2008. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College under the direction of the poll’s Director, Dr. G. Terry Madonna, Head Methodologist, Berwood Yost, and Project Manager, Jennifer Harding. The data included in this release represent the responses of 547 registered Pennsylvanians. Telephone numbers for the survey were randomly selected from state voter registration lists, and respondents were randomly selected from within each household. The sample error for registered voters is +/- 4.2 percent. A complete description of the methodology can be found in the attachment.

Dr. G. Terry Madonna
Director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs
Director, Franklin and Marshall College Poll
Professor of Public Affairs
Franklin & Marshall College
P.O. Box 3003
Lancaster, Pa. 19604
(717) 291-4052 Office
(717 575-2164 Cell
717 358-4666 Fax
[email protected]