Muhlenberg Poll: Hillary Up By 9 Points

Muhlenberg College/Morning Call
2016 Pennsylvania Election Survey
Mid September Version

Key Findings:

1. With about 7 weeks left until Election Day Hillary Clinton maintains a 9 point lead in a head-to-head matchup with Donald Trump among likely voters in Pennsylvania.

2. When third party candidates are included in the question Clinton maintains a 40 to 32 lead over Trump with Libertarian Gary Johnson receiving 14% of the vote and Green Party nominee Jill Stein receiving 5% support from likely Pennsylvania voters.

3. In the United States Senate race in Pennsylvania Democrat Katie McGinty holds a 5 point lead over Republican incumbent Senator Pat Toomey.

Methodological Statement

The following report contains the results of a telephone survey of 405 likely general election voters in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania between September 12 and 16, 2016. Respondents were interviewed in English on both landlines (210) and cell phones (195). With a randomly selected sample of respondents the margin of error for the surveys is +/- 5.5% at a 95% level of confidence.

Margins of error for questions with smaller sample size will be larger. In addition to sampling error, one should consider that question wording and other fielding issues can introduce error or bias into survey results. The data has been weighted to gender, age, region and party to reflect voter population parameters in Pennsylvania. The calculation of sampling error takes into account design effects due to the weighting identified above. In order to reach a representative sample of likely voters both land lines and cell phones were called up to 3 times. The response rate for this survey as calculated using the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) RRII formula is approximately 11%.

The sampling frame for the study is from the registered voters files of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania with only voters that have voted in at least one election in any of the past 4 years or who has registered to vote since the last presidential election included in the frame. Due to rounding the
totals provided in the frequency report may not total 100%. The survey instrument (presented in its entirety below) was designed by Dr. Christopher P. Borick of the MCIPO is conjunction with the staff of the Morning Call. The survey was funded exclusively by the Morning Call and the MCIPO. For
more detailed information on the methods employed please contact the MCIPO at 484-664-3444 or email Dr. Borick at [email protected].

INSTRUMENT
AND FREQUENCY REPORT
Q1: In which of the following categories does your current age fall? (READ LIST)
1. 18-29………………………………16%
2. 30-49………………………………30%
3. 50-65………………………………30%
4. or over 65………………………..24%

Q2: Which of the following categories best describes your current voting status.
Are you
registered as a (read list)?
1. Democrat…………………………………………………..47%
2. Republican…………………………………………………39%
3. Independent………………………………………………11%
4. Other Party……………………………………………….. 2%
5. Not Registered to Vote in Pennsylvania (TERMINATE)
6. Not Sure (Volunteered) (TERMINATE)

Q3: How likely are you to vote in the elections this November? Are you definitely
going to vote, very likely to vote, not too likely to vote or definitely not voting in
the November Election?
1. Definitely Going to Vote………………………………84%
2. Very Likely To Vote……………………………………..16%
3. Not Too Likely to Vote…………………………………(TERMINATE)
4. Definitely not voting……………………………………(TERMINATE)
5. Not Sure (Volunteered)……………………………….(TERMINATE)

Q4: Next, I would like for you to rate the performance of a few political officials.
For each name that I read, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the way
he is doing his job.
First, President Barack Obama?
1. Approve………………………………….53%
2. Disapprove…………………………….. 41%
3. No opinion (Volunteered)…………. 6%

Q5: How about Senator Pat Toomey?
1. Approve……………………………………..27%
2. Disapprove………………………………… 37%
3. No opinion (Volunteered)……………. 36%

Q6: Now, I would like to ask your overall impression of a few political figures.
For each name I read, please tell me if your impression of them is favorable
or unfavorable. First, Donald Trump.
1. Favorable…………………………………..30%
2. Unfavorable……………………………….61%
3. Neutral/Not Sure (Volunteered)…… 9%

Q7: Next, Hillary Clinton.
1. Favorable…………………………………..35%
2. Unfavorable……………………………….55%
3. Neutral/Not Sure (Volunteered)……11%

Q8: How about Pat Toomey
1. Favorable…………………………………………….28%
2. Unfavorable…………………………………………37%
3. Neutral/Not Sure. (VOLUNTEERED)………….32%
4. Haven’t heard of him. (VOLUNTEEERED)….. 4%

Q9 And Katie McGinty?
1. Favorable…………………………………………….23%
2. Unfavorable…………………………………………28%
3. Neutral/Not Sure. (VOLUNTEERED)………….39%
4. Haven’t heard of her. (VOLUNTEEERED)…. 9%

Q10: Now, if the 2016 Presidential Election was being held today
and the race was between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, who would you vote
for?
1. Hillary Clinton…………………………………..46%
2. Donald Trump…………………………………..37%
3. Neither/Other (VOLUNTEERED)…………..11%
4. Not Sure (VOLUNTEERED)………………….. 6%

(Q11 ASKED ONLY OF INDIVIDUALS NOT SURE IN Q10)
Q11: Are you leaning more towards voting for Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?
1. Hillary Clinton…………………………………..16%
2. Donald Trump…………………………………..10%
3. Neither/Other (VOLUNTEERED)………….. 8%
4. Not Sure (VOLUNTEERED)…………………..66%
PRESIDENTIAL RACE WITH LEANERS
1. Hillary Clinton……………………………………47%
2. Donald Trump……………………………………38%
3. Neither/Other (VOLUNTEERED)…………… 11%
4. Not Sure (VOLUNTEERED)………………….. 4%

Q12: Now, if the 2016 Presidential Election was being held today and the race
was between Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Gary Johnson, and Jill Stein, who
would you vote for?
1. Hillary Clinton……………………………….40%
2. Donald Trump……………………………… 32%
3. Gary Johnson………………………………. 14%
4. Jill Stein……………………………………….. 5%
5. Neither/Other (Volunteered)…………. 3%
6. Not Sure (Volunteered)…………………. 7%

Q13: Now, if the 2016 U.S. Senate election was being held today and the race
was between
Katie McGinty, the Democrat, and Pat Toomey, the Republican who would you
vote for?
1. Katie McGinty………………………………. 41%
2. Pat Toomey…………………………………..38%
3. Not Sure (Volunteered)…………………..21%
(Q14 ASKED ONLY OF INDIVIDUALS UNSURE IN Q13)

Q14: Are you leaning more towards voting for Katie McGinty or Pat Toomey?
1. Katie McGinty……………………………….15%
2. Pat Toomey………………………………….. 5%
3. Not Sure (Volunteered)…………………..80%
US SENATE RACE WITH LEANERS
1. Katie McGinty……………………………… 43%
2. Pat Toomey………………………………….38%
3. Not Sure (Volunteered)…………………. 19%

Q15: Finally, I have a few questions about yourself for demographic purposes.
Which of the following categories best describes your racial identity? Are you
(Read list)?
1. White/ Caucasian…………………………..82%
2. African American……………………………10%
3. Hispanic……………………………………….. 3%
4. Latino……………………………………………<1% 5. Asian.................................................... 1% 6. Native American.................................. <1% 7. Mixed Race.......................................... 3% 8 Or other............................................... 1% Q16: Which of the following categories best describes your religious affiliation? Are you (Read list) 1. Catholic................................................32% 2. Protestant............................................33% 3. Jewish.................................................. 2% 4. Muslim................................................. 1% 5. Hindu.................................................. 1% 6. Other Religion (Including agnostic)......21% 7. or Atheist............................................. 5% 8. Not Sure (Volunteered)....................... 5% Q17: What is your current marital status? Are you? 1. Single.............................................26% 2. Married..........................................58% 3. Separated....................................... 2% 4. Divorced......................................... 5% 5. Widowed........................................ 8% 6. Partnered....................................... 1% Q18: What is your highest level of education? 1. Less than High School..................... 2% 2. High School Graduate.....................22% 3. Some college or technical school....24% 4. College graduate (4 yr only)........... 30% 5. Graduate or professional degree... 21% Q19: What county do you currently reside in?(OPEN ENDED – CODED INTO CATEGORIES) 1. Southeast (including Lehigh Valley)...........40% 2. Southwest..................................................18% 3. Remainder of State....................................42% Q20: Which of the following categories best describes your family income? Is it? 1. Under $20,000.........................13% 2. $20,000-$40,000......................14% 3. $40,000-$60,000......................19% 4. $60,000-$80,000......................15% 5. $80,000-$100,000....................10% 6. Over $100,000..........................27% 7. Not Sure (Volunteered)............. 3% Q21: Thank you for your help with the survey. We appreciate your time. (IDENTIFY GENDER BY VOICE) 1. Male..............................49% 2. Female.......................... 51%