Santorum doesn’t lose
In this beleaguered year for Republicans the Keystone state has become the bell weather battleground. No race is more closely watched across the country than incumbent Senator Rick Santorum up against Pennsylvania Treasurer Bob Casey. Casey was recruited in 2005 by Democratic leadership in its attempt to recapture the House and Senate this year.
Santorum was first elected to the House of Representatives at the age of 32. He went on in 1994 to defeat the appointed Senator Harris Wofford on what was largely a referendum on the Clinton Administration’s plan to nationalize the American health care system. In a remarkable rise, at least in Senate terms, Santorum has gone on to become the third highest ranking member of the world’s most exclusive club. If re-elected he is likely to become the Republican Whip, the number two slot.
Casey is no slouch at campaigning. He grew up working for votes by his late father’s side. Robert Casey, Sr. ended his long career of public service as governor of the state for two terms. Like his Dad and Santorum, Casey, Jr. holds some socially conservative views.
In fact in large measure on the big issues there’s little contrast between Santorum and Casey. In their recent nationally televised debate the biggest difference between the two in practical terms was whether or not Defense Secretary Don Rumsfield should be fired. Easy guess on that one: Casey yes, Santorum no.
What’s Pennsylvania’s loss if Santorum gets tossed? Seniority in the Senate. Never to be defended: However the largesse of the Federal government is what it is. When coupled with Pennsylvania’s other senator’s quarter century of seniority and Santorum’s ranking, the pair are in a position to really deliver the bacon. Conservative values notwithstanding, the highway, transit and just plain pork funding that comes out of Washington could come disproportionately back to the Keystone State. That’s probably what Pennsylvania’s Democratic governor meant last month when he said: “Santorum delivers.”
Even if the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and take the White House in two years it would take Casey at least another successful election cycle to even come close to the same level of seniority.
But war and the relative unpopularity of the White House may prevail over seniority and pork barrel spending. Even with some 20 million Republican campaign dollars targeting him, Bob Casey may be Pennsylvania’s new Senator. But Santorum doesn’t lose. Standing by his social conservatism Santorum becomes the martyr of the cause. The day after the election he’s worth ten times his Senate salary on the national lecture and book circuit. At his relatively young political age, someday the door to the Governor’s mansion, maybe even The White House could be open to him.
Albert Paschall
Senior Fellow
The Lincoln Institute of Public Opinion Research, Inc.
