For immediate release: Wednesday, 10-13–10
The Franklin & Marshall College Poll…the 19th consecutive year of polling in Pennsylvania
Please find attached and below the results of the Franklin & Marshall College Poll conducted in Pennsylvania’s 11th congressional district. Complete results can be found in the attachment or at http://politics.fandm.edu.
• Lou Barletta has an advantage over incumbent Paul Kanjorski among all registered adults, 45% to 38%, with about one in seven (16%) adults still undecided. Barletta’s advantage is the same among those more likely to vote, 47% to 40%, with 12% undecided. The survey finds that Barletta’s advantage increases as the likely voter screen becomes more restrictive.
• Less than two in five (36%) registered adults in the district rate Representative Kanjorski’s job performance as "excellent" or "good." The same proportion (36%) believe he deserves re-election while more than half (57%) believes it is time for a change.
• Many registered adults in the 11th CD are still undecided about their choices for US Senate (35%) and Governor (35%). Joe Sestak leads Pat Toomey in the district among all registered adults, 33% to 31%; however, this lead disappears among likely voters, 35% to 35%. Dan Onorato leads Tom Corbett among registered adults, 35% to 30%, and more narrowly among likely voters, 37% to 34%. Both the Republican candidates improve their positions as the likely voter screen becomes more restrictive.
• Unemployment and the economy (52%) are the primary issues facing respondents and their families in the district.
• The positive job performance rating for President Obama (36%) is similar to his overall state-wide rating. Governor Rendell’s positive job performance rating (26%) is lower in the 11th CD than his statewide number.
• More voters in the 11th CD believe that policy makers in Washington should be concerned with stimulating the economy (52%) than with reducing the deficit (37%).
The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted October 5-10, 2010. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College under the direction of the poll’s Director Dr. G. Terry Madonna, Head Methodologist Berwood Yost, and Senior Project Manager Angela Knittle. The data included in this release represent the responses of 493 registered adult residents of the 11th Congressional District in Pennsylvania, including 276 Democrats, 177 Republicans, 34 registered as Independent/Other, and 6 who refused to identify party. Telephone numbers for the survey were randomly generated using state voter registration lists. Voter Contact Services generated the sample using a registration-based sampling (RBS) scheme to identify survey respondents. A detailed description of the RBS scheme can be found on their website (http://www.vcsnet.com). The sample error for registered adults is +/- 4.4 percentage points, and the subsample of likely voters (n=414) has a sample error of +/- 4.8 percentage points. A complete methodological statement is supplied in the attached report.
The Franklin & Marshall College Poll is produced in conjunction with the Philadelphia Daily News, WGAL-TV (South Central PA), Pittsburgh Tribune Review, WTAE-TV (Pittsburgh), WPVI-TV6/ABC (Philadelphia), Times-Shamrock Newspapers, Harrisburg Patriot-News, and Lancaster Newspapers. It may be used in whole or in part, provided any use is attributed to Franklin & Marshall College.
Dr. G. Terry Madonna
Director, Center for Politics and Public Affairs
Director, Franklin and Marshall College Poll
Professor of Public Affairs
Franklin & Marshall College
P.O. Box 3003
Lancaster, PA. 17604
(717) 291-4052 Office
(717) 575-2164 Cell
(717) 358-4666 Fax