Breaking Trust

Republicans have not kept faith with their voters

I was reminded of that the other night as I watched Larry King interview former President George H.W. Bush.  The occasion was the publication of a new book on the life of Bush 41 penned by his daughter Doro.  The interview was poignant with both the Bushes and King in tears by the end of a sentimental walk down memory lane.

Thinking back on the Bush Presidency it is hard to believe that the nation would turn a man of such obvious character out of the White House in favor of Bill Clinton.  A certified war hero whose plane was literally shot out of the sky during World War II, the Bush era in Washington harkened back to a time when politics, although highly competitive, was truly “kinder and gentler” than the smash mouth brand practiced in the nation’s capitol today.

Carrier of the Reagan mantle, George H.W. Bush seemed poised for two terms, especially in the wake of Gulf War I when his popularity ratings soared higher than any chief executive had experienced before him.  But, there was something eating away at the foundation of the Bush Presidency.

That something was a breaking of trust with the American people over his no tax increase pledge.  I can remember rising to my feet along with the thousands of other packed into the Superdome in New Orleans when, while accepting his party’s nomination for President, Bush said “Read my lips – no new taxes.”  Millions of Americans took him at his word.  And he broke it.

Broken trust is also the root cause of what appears to be a complete meltdown of the Republican Party this year – at both the state and national levels.  Republicans in Congress and in the Pennsylvania General Assembly have failed to act like Republicans; raising spending to record levels and approving all sorts of legislation voters more associate with Democrats than Republicans.

Republicans are trailing in the polls in all but one of the competitive U.S. Senate races, and in that race – Virginia – Senator George Allen is in deep macacca after a series of missteps.  If the polling numbers translate into actual results, Democrats will secure more than the five seats needed to take control of the U.S. Senate.

Over in the House, the sex scandal over former Congressman Mark Foley’s lurid e-mail and instant message exchanges with underage male pages has revealed a stunning lack of responsible oversight by everyone up to and including House Speaker Dennis Hastert.  Social conservatives are in rebellion, presaging a depressed turn-out among the “values voters” who have provided the margin of victory in recent GOP races.

Here in Pennsylvania the situation is equally grim.  Republican gubernatorial candidate Lynn Swann trails incumbent Governor Ed Rendell by double digits.  U.S. Senator Rick Santorum is stuck at about 40% in the polls.  As many as four GOP Congressmen are in tight races for re-election., with at least two losses and possibly three likely.  The continued slide of the “collar counties” around Philadelphia into the Democrat column could power a Democrat take-over of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives, or at the very least greatly diminish the Republican majority in that chamber.

In virtually every case the diminished and diminishing Republican prospects have been driven by broken trust.  The conservative base of the party is certainly supporting Rick Santorum, but the fervor of past years has disappeared in the wake of his support for U.S. Senator Arlen Specter over Pat Toomey in the 2004 Primary.  Entire books could be written on the sins of the state House Republican caucus.  But the words “pay raise” sum up the situation there rather well.

There is no doubt that across-the-board Democrat victories will be bad for Pennsylvania and bad for America if for no other reason than their soaring fortunes are powered not by any alternative vision they have offered for leading our state and nation, but rather by deep disappointment with the governing Republican majority.

Broken trust unleashes powerful emotions.  The Republican Party should have learned that lesson back in 1992 when the busted covenant on taxes resulted in the ouster of an incumbent President.  It is a lesson the GOP appears to have to learn all over again – and will likely do so on November 7th.