Clinton Surges to 11-point Lead in PA

Member Group : G. Terry Madonna & Michael Young

Franklin & Marshall College Poll

The 25th year of consecutive polling in Pennsylvania

Below are the highlights of the August 2016, Franklin & Marshall College Poll of Pennsylvania voters. Complete results can be found at

• Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 49% to 38% among likely voters.Her lead is a bit larger among registered voters, 48% to 35%.

• More registered Democrats support Clinton (78%) than registered Republicans that support Trump (69%).

• The Democratic convention appeared to benefit Secretary Clinton more than the Republican convention benefited Mr. Trump. Nearly two in three (62%) of those who watched the Democratic convention reported being more likely to vote for Secretary Clinton, while only two in five (40%) of those who watched the Republican convention said they were more likely to vote for Mr. Trump.

• Mr. Trump holds a sizable advantage among whites with a high school degree or less (53% to 31%), but Secretary Clinton has a similar advantage among college-educated whites (58% to 28%).Mr. Trump also has an advantage among white men (45% to 35%), but his advantage is dwarfed by Secretary Clinton’s lead among white women (57% to 29%).

• Both candidates have seen their net favorability improve since the primary election in March, although both continue to have a net negative rating.Secretary Clinton is viewed favorably by 47% of registered voters and is viewed unfavorably by 49%.Mr. Trump is viewed favorably by 33% of registered voters and is viewed unfavorably by 62%.

• Democrat Katie McGinty has a one-point lead over Republican Senator Pat Toomey 39% to 38% among likely voters; her lead is larger among registered voters, 38% to 30%.

This survey reflects interviews with 661 Pennsylvania registered voters, including 321 Democratic, 257 Republican and 83 Independents conducted by the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College from July 29-August 1, 2016. The sample error for this survey is +/- 4.8% percentage points. The sampling error for 389 likely voters is +/- 6.3%. A complete methodological statement can be found in the complete report.

The Franklin & Marshall College Poll is produced in conjunction with the Philadelphia Daily News, WGAL-TV (South Central PA), Pittsburgh Tribune Review, WTAE-TV (Pittsburgh), WPVI-TV6/ABC (Philadelphia), Times-Shamrock Newspapers, Harrisburg Patriot-News/PennLive, LNP media group, and the Reading Eagle. It may be used in whole or in part, provided any use is attributed to the college.

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