F&M Poll: Clinton Up 11 in PA

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Findings from the Latest Franklin & Marshall College Poll

Franklin & Marshall College Poll

The 25th year of consecutive polling in Pennsylvania

Below are the highlights of the October 2016, Franklin & Marshall College Poll. Complete results can be found at http://www.fandm.edu/fandmpoll

• Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 49% to 38% among likely voters, very similar to her lead in last month’s poll.

• More likely Democratic voters support Secretary Clinton (81%) than likely Republican voters who support Mr. Trump (74%).

• Secretary Clinton leads among more demographic sub-groups than Mr. Trump, with sizable leads among women, young voters, non-whites, self-described moderates, and those living in Southeastern Pennsylvania. Mr. Trump leads, as in prior surveys, among those without a college education, those living in rural counties, and self-described conservatives.

• Considering whites who are likely to vote, Mr. Trump holds the advantage among whites with no college degree (53% to 34%) as he has throughout the race. Mr. Trump is currently running close to Secretary Clinton among white men (43% to 45%) but he is trailing white women (36% to 53%).

• Secretary Clinton is viewed favorably by 46% of registered voters (38% in August, and 47% in September) and is viewed unfavorably by 52% (54% in August and 50% in September), giving her a net favorable of minus 6. Mr. Trump is viewed favorably by 35% of registered voters (37% in August and 32% in September) and is viewed unfavorably by 62% (58% in August and 60% in September), giving him a net favorable rating of minus 27.

• More voters continue to believe Secretary Clinton rather than Mr. Trump has the experience to be president, is better prepared to handle foreign policy issues, and has the character and judgment to be president. Voters are evenly divided on which candidate has the ability to fix the country’s economic problems and which candidate is most honest and trustworthy.

• Democrat Katie McGinty has a sizable lead over Republican Senator Pat Toomey among registered voters, 43% to 33%, with a large share of voters still reporting they are undecided about their preference (22%). McGinty’s lead is a bit larger among likely voters, 47% to 35%, with one in six (16%) undecided. McGinty’s advantage in this poll is larger than in our prior polls and is larger than the average of recent US Senate polls conducted in Pennsylvania. Although the estimated vote of 47% for McGinty is in line with other recently published polls, Senator Toomey is underperforming those numbers.Readers should interpret these results with caution and in the context of other recent polling.

• Toomey is currently viewed favorably by one in three voters (30% compared to 30% in September, 29% in August, and 23% in July) and unfavorably by nearly half of registered voters (47% compared to 39% in September, 37% in August, and 40% in July). McGinty is viewed favorably by one in three voters (39% compared to 33% in September, 28% in August, and 25% in July) and unfavorably by about one in three voters (38% compared to 33% in September, 29% in August, and 25% in July).

This survey reflects interviews with 863 Pennsylvania registered voters, including 418 Democrats, 327 Republicans and 118 Independents conducted by the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College from October 26 -30, 2016. Most of the interviewing for this survey was conducted prior to the FBI’s statement on October 28th about Secretary Clinton’s emails (625 of the 863 interviews). The sample error for this survey is +/- 4.4 percentage points. The sampling error for 652 likely voters is +/- 5.1. A full methodological statement can be found in the complete report.

The Franklin & Marshall College Poll is produced in conjunction with the Philadelphia Daily News, WGAL-TV (South Central PA), Pittsburgh Tribune Review, WTAE-TV (Pittsburgh), WPVI-TV6/ABC (Philadelphia), Times-Shamrock Newspapers, Harrisburg Patriot-News/PennLive, LNP media group, and the Reading Eagle. It may be used in whole or in part, provided any use is attributed to the college.

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