F&M Releases National Poll Results: Obama Leads McCain by 5%

FRANKLIN & MARSHALL COLLEGE NATIONAL POLL Lancaster, PA

For immediate release Wednesday, 10/22/08

Please find attached and below the results of the October national Franklin and Marshall College Poll produced at Franklin and Marshall College in Lancaster, PA in partnership with Hearst-Argyle. Complete results can be found in the attachment or at http://politics.fandm.edu/.

Key Findings:

1) Barack Obama leads John McCain nationally by five percentage points (50% to 45%) among likely voters with 2% undecided. The Obama lead is larger (49% to 38%) among registered voters.

2) Among likely voters Obama leads among women, (51% to 41%), those between 18-34 years of age, (58% to 28%), Catholics, (48% to 41%), non-Hispanic blacks, (89% to 3%), independents, (47% to 38%), and those living in the Northeast, (50% to 40%), the West, (49% to 39%), and the Midwest, (50% to 41%). McCain has an advantage among those over 55, (50% to 41%), non-Hispanic whites, (52% to 40%), fundamentalist Christians, (56% to 34%), military veterans, (67% to 30%), and among Southerners (48% to 44%). Male voters divide about evenly.

3) A substantial majority (82%) of registered American voters believe the country is off on the wrong track, and more than a third say they (40%) are worse off financially this year than last. Obama is the choice of those who say the country is off on the wrong track (55% to 30%), while McCain has substantial support from those who feel the country is moving in the right direction (73% to 21%). Obama leads among those whose personal finances are worse off compared to last year (60% to 26%), and McCain does well among those whose personal finances are better than last year (61% to 32%).

4) The economy (47%), moral values (10%), and the Iraq War (10%) are most often mentioned as the issues influencing presidential vote choice. Obama leads McCain among registered voters who are primarily concerned with the economy (61% to 24%) and the Iraq War (54% to 31%), while McCain leads among values voters (76% to 13%).

These results and the attached analyses are based on the results of interviews conducted October 13-19, 2008. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin and Marshall College under the direction of the poll’s Director Dr. G. Terry Madonna, Head Methodologist Berwood Yost, and Project Manager Brad Nankerville. The data included in this release represent the responses of 1,365 registered voters in the United States. Telephone numbers for the survey were generated using random digit dialing, and respondents were randomly selected from within each household. Survey results were weighted using an iterative weighting algorithm. The sample error for registered adults is +/-2.7 percent. Among likely voters the sample error is +/- 3.5 percent.

Dr. G. Terry Madonna
Director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs
Director, Franklin and Marshall College Poll
Professor of Public Affairs
Franklin & Marshall College
P.O. Box 3003
Lancaster, Pa. 19604
(717) 291-4052 Office
(717) 575-2164 Cell
(717) 358-4666 Fax
[email protected]

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