GOP Leads State House ‘Generic” Ballot

Member Group : Broad + Liberty

A Republican committee that works to elect candidates at the statewide level has released limited information on a poll they say points to good odds for GOP success in the 2022 elections this fall.

A poll from Cygnal commissioned by the Republican State Leadership Committee found that legislative Republicans lead Democrats in Pennsylvania on the so-called “generic” ballot question by a 48-42 margin. The poll also said independents were favoring Republicans by a 14-point spread on the generic ballot question as well, 51-37.

The polling memo also said 60% of respondents say the state is on the “wrong track,” compared to 26% who said it was on the “right track.”

Republicans say the results are a reflection of President Biden’s unpopularity. A polling average run by the website shows Biden’s disapproval has been over 50% since October.

“These numbers confirm why so many Pennsylvania Democrats cited ‘scheduling conflicts’ when President Biden came to town last week,” said RSLC Deputy Communications Director Mason Di Palma.

‘These numbers confirm why so many Pennsylvania Democrats cited “scheduling conflicts” when President Biden came to town last week.’

“The policies coming out of Democrat-controlled Washington have been a disaster for Pennsylvanians, and legislative Democrats are refusing to push back on these policies. Republicans in the legislature will hold the line in November because they continue to put their constituents first and fight back against Joe Biden and the rest of his Democrat enablers.”

Cygnal is graded as a B+ polling firm by Fivethirtyeight, which tracks pollster performance and bias. That grade puts it in the company of such notable surveys as the NBC News/Wall St. Journal poll, and Susquehanna Polling & Research, a Pennsylvania-based group.

The poll was conducted from Jan. 17-18, surveying 510 likely general election voters, and has a margin of error of ±4.3%.

Half of the 50 state senate seats across the commonwealth will be on the ballot this November, and all 203 house districts will be decided.

The GOP has had continuous control of both chambers since 2011.

A request for comment to the Pennsylvania Democratic Party on the polling results was not immediately returned.

In November, polling from Morning Consult showed that Democrats had lost ground quickly with voters in the Philadelphia suburbs, a key region that had helped propel President Biden to victory in 2020.

Despite the loss of the presidential race in Pennsylvania in 2020, Republicans have shown renewed strength of late. They won the races for auditor general and state treasurer that year and narrowly lost the attorney general contest. The GOP victory in the treasurer’s race marked the first time a Republican had defeated an incumbent Democrat in a statewide race since 1994.

In 2021, the trend continued as Republicans won a Supreme Court election and voters passed two state constitutional amendments favored by the GOP and opposed by the Democrats. Democrats face tough historical odds in the governor’s race, as well: the party has not won three gubernatorial races in a row in Pennsylvania since 1847.

Todd Shepherd is Broad + Liberty’s chief investigative reporter. Send him tips at [email protected], or use his encrypted email at [email protected]. @shepherdreports