It’s the Economy, Stupid

Then why are Republicans in trouble?

“It’s the economy, stupid.” Those famous words by Clinton campaign manager Jim Carville came to symbolize the then-Arkansas Governor’s 1992 campaign for the Presidency. Carville had captured the essence of what really matters in American politics: the individual voter’s pocketbook.

Things may be different this year. If it is the economy (stupid) then Republicans would be cruising to easy victory in next month’s mid-term elections. The venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average has set record high after record high, cracking 12,000 for the first time ever. And with more Americans than at any other time in history invested in the markets, the wealth being generated via stocks is being spread wider and further down the economic spectrum.

Gasoline prices, which had also soared to an all time high in the wake of last year’s Gulf hurricanes and international instability, have now fallen to as low as $2.00 per gallon in some areas, easing tensions caused by high fuel prices.

President Bush’s tax cuts have super-heated the economy, increasing the wealth of millions. The vigorous economy has flooded the U.S. Treasury with record amounts of tax money, causing federal deficits swollen by the war against Islamic fascism and disaster relief to be dramatically less than predicted.

If it were the economy (stupid), Republicans who have controlled the U.S. House of Representatives for the past 12 years, the U.S. Senate during much of that time, and the White House for the last six years would be poised to reap the electoral rewards a strong economy typically bestows upon the party in power.

Instead, some are now predicting a loss of perhaps as many as 40 Republican seats in the House of Representatives. In Pennsylvania alone, at least four incumbent GOP Congressmen are on the ropes. There is now even the possibility that the GOP could lose the six seats in the U.S. Senate needed for Democrats to take over the upper chamber.

Public perception that the U.S. is bogged down in the Iraqi theatre in the war against Islamic fascism has driven the dour public mood. In September the focus on the fifth anniversary of the September 11, 2001 terror attacks had begun to take some of the edge off that issue.

And then the Mark Foley scandal broke.

Since then the media and the campaign is being dominated by sensational and lurid details of the now-resigned Florida Congressman’s e-mail exchanges with under-aged male pages. The tale of one Congressman’s transgressions has morphed into a major Congressional scandal that has even House Speaker Dennis Hastert fighting to hold onto his position of power.

Aside from the obvious likely loss of Foley’s seat, dozens of other Republican members of Congress have been battling in close races, with many of those races tilting marginally to the incumbent. The Foley scandal could be just the spark that moves enough voters to turn slim wins into narrow losses.

Should Democrats recapture control in such a manner it would be very different from the Republican take-over of 1994. During that campaign, the GOP – led by soon-to-be House Speaker Newt Gingrich – put forth the “Contract with America.” The “contract” was a well thought out and detailed document outlining the vision a potential GOP Congress would have for the nation’s future. Americans went to the polls consciously voting for a specific set of ideas.

This year, national Democrats have failed to develop anything even close to a comprehensive message. On Iraq and national security they have offered only criticism of anything and everything Bush, but no hint of a viable alternative course of action. In terms of the economy, Democrats have been critical of the Bush tax cuts, leading to the obvious conclusion that they would raise taxes should they return to power.

Rather than being a referendum on competitive visions for the future, this election hinges on war hysteria and now, a sex scandal. The timing of the Foley scandal could make it the pivotal event of the campaign. If that occurs, it will be the first time in U.S. history that a sex scandal has trumped economic prosperity as a determining factor in election of a Congressional majority.

And that is a stupid way to select the leaders of the world’s most powerful nation.