With two weeks remaining until Pennsylvania’s primary election day, there is little clarity about which candidates have an advantage in the Republican primary races, but the Democratic US Senate primary is somewhat clearer. In every primary race there is a sizable pool of undecided voters, and many voters who have a preference but might yet change their minds, that make it difficult to suggest who may win.
John Fetterman has increased his advantage in the Democratic US Senate primary since April–Fetterman now leads Conor Lamb, 53% to 14%, with one in four (22%) still undecided about their preference. Half (51%) of those who have a preference report they could change their mind about their choice. John Fetterman is much better known among Democratic voters than is Conor Lamb; one in five (21%) Democrats say they don’t know enough to have an opinion about Fettermam compared to 39% who say they don’t know enough to have an opinion about Lamb. Fetterman’s favorability (67%) ratings are also stronger than Lamb’s favorability (46%) ratings. Both candidates improved their name recognition and favorability ratings among Democrats since our April survey.
The Republican senate primary field has no clear front-runner at the moment, with Mehmet Oz (18%) and David McCormick (16%) each garnering similar shares of Republican support, with Kathy Barnette third (12%). Two in five (39%) voters say they are not sure who they will vote for in the senate race and three in five (57%) of those who have chosen a candidate say they could still change their minds. Favorability ratings of Mehmet Oz remain negative among Republican voters, with more having an unfavorable (41%) than favorable (29%) opinion of the candidate. Oz (19%) and Barnette (18%) are running neck and neck among the Trump faction of Republican voters, while McCormick (28%) has an advantage among the traditional faction.