Red Flags for Shapiro

Political truisms are true – until they are not.

For decades there were two political truisms in Penn’s woods: party control of the governor’s office flipped every eight years, and you can’t beat a Casey. Both have fallen like an evergreen tree at Christmastime.

In 1968 Pennsylvania voters approved a number of revisions to the state constitution. Until that time governors were limited to a single four year term. The update changed that allowing a governor to serve two terms or eight years.

Milton Shapp, who had shortened his name from Shapiro, was elected in 1970 and became the first Pennsylvania governor to serve two consecutive terms. Shapp, a Democrat, served for eight years followed by Republican Richard Thornburgh commencing a decades-long tradition of the two political parties exchanging control of the executive branch every eight years.

That was the case – until it wasn’t. Tom Wolf broke the cycle in 2014 when he defeated incumbent Republican Governor Tom Corbett. Wolf served two terms but was then succeeded by current Governor Josh Shapiro giving Democrats the executive mansion for at least twelve years.

The second political truism – you can’t beat a Casey fell this year when Senator-elect David McCormick defeated incumbent Robert P. Casey, Jr. in a close race. Casey’s father, Robert P. Casey, Sr., was governor from 1987 to 1995. The elder Casey had served in the state senate and as Auditor General before losing campaigns for the governorship in 1970 to Shapp and in 1978 to Peter Flaherty.

During his losing streak Casey watched as others bearing the same name were elected state Treasurer and another winning the Democratic nomination for Lt. Governor. Finally, in 1986 running as “the real Bob Casey” he was elected governor. Governor Casey was a moderate, rare even before the current Leftward lurch of the Democrat Party. He was most noted for his pro-life stance. The elder Casey became seriously ill during his tenure and underwent a multiple organ transplant endearing him to the Pennsylvania electorate.

Robert P. Casey, Jr. followed in his father’s footsteps serving as Pennsylvania Auditor General and then state Treasurer. His lone bid for the governorship ended in defeat the hands of Ed Rendell who went onto serve two terms in the state’s top office. In 2006 Casey challenged incumbent U.S. Senator Rick Santorum for one of Pennsylvania’s two seats in the upper chamber and in a wave election year for Democrats won by a landslide.

And so for the past 20 years Robert P. Casey, Jr. has been a juggernaut in Pennsylvania politics. He easily dispatched opponents in 2012 and 2018 and was viewed as the prohibitive favorite in 2024. But then along came Donald Trump and Dave McCormick both of whom ran near flawless campaigns enroute to statewide victories.

The Casey political truism was no more.

That brings us back to Governor Josh Shapiro. Shapiro was one of the finalists on Vice President Kamala Harris’ list of potential running mates. In what is widely viewed as an error in judgment she by-passed Shapiro for Minnesota Governor Tim Walz who in the end added nothing to the ticket.

Given the drubbing Harris took at the hands of Donald Trump Governor Shapiro is likely counting his blessings that he wasn’t selected. He has now positioned himself as a top contender for the 2028 Democratic Presidential nomination.

Before that, however, in 2026 he must win re-election as governor. Conventional wisdom holds that will be little more than a speed bump on the road to 2028. Shapiro won in a landslide in 2022 as Republicans engaged in a nine-way primary and then ran a lackluster General Election campaign. The party, however, got its act together this year getting behind McCormick early creating a blueprint for future success.

Shapiro will face a vastly different political landscape in 2026. His party’s voter registration edge has been substantially eroded placing the parties on near equal footing. His dalliance with the vice presidency revealed cracks in his political armor as a sexual harassment scandal involving one of his cabinet secretaries and his attempt to straddle the fence on school choice revealed problems within his own party.

The bottom line is that when you have seen one election you have seen one election. And political truisms are true – until they are not. With Donald Trump in the White House and Pennsylvania Republicans energized by their sweep of statewide offices this year Shapiro could be looking at a road block, not a speed bump in 2026.

(Lowman S. Henry is Chairman & CEO of the Lincoln Institute and host of the weekly American Radio Journal and Lincoln Radio Journal. His e-mail address is [email protected].)

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