Something Big is About to Happen

Something big is about to happen in the Russia-Ukraine war. It’s entirely possible that
Ukraine will win before winter sets in – an outcome no one expected when Vladimir
Putin began the invasion seven months ago.

The left-leaning Guardian newspaper in England earlier this week said, “Even as
Russian President Vladimir Putin lays claim to more territory, with his attempted
annexation of four Ukrainian regions last Friday, the mood in Kyiv is that a full victory
ought to involve not just taking things back to how they were before the February
invasion, but regaining all of Ukraine’s territory. Before, Ukrainian officials said Crimea
would be theirs again more out of hope than a firm belief it would actually happen. The
same went for most western officials and diplomats, who privately suggested there was
little chance of Kyiv ever restoring control.”

Now, as Russia struggles on the battlefield in southern and eastern Ukraine, and cracks
of dissent at home appear over President Putin’s unpopular mobilization drive, some in
Kyiv hope the writing is on the wall. “Everything began with Crimea and everything will
end with Crimea,” said Zelenskiy, in an August speech.

Foreign Policy Magazine even says that momentum is on Ukraine’s side, and that the
recent mobilization of 300,000 Russian reservists is nothing but serving up cannon
fodder that will not save Russia’s war. The Carnegie Endowment for World Peace writes
that “Until recently, it looked like despite the informal mutterings and grim expectations
of Russia’s elites, whose continued political support for Putin is critical, they should not
be expected to desert their president, no matter what the price of victory. .. but now,
with the chaotic implementation of the mobilization and the sorry state of affairs on the
front, the idea that Russia will inevitably prevail has started to be overshadowed by
doubt over what price Russia is prepared to pay in order to bring Ukraine to heel. The
longer the conflict rages and the more resources the Russian regime throws into the
furnace of war, the more divided Russia’s elites become.”

The liberation of the rail hub of Lyman (pron: lee-MON) came as Russian forces melted
away without a fight.” Retired LGEN H.R. McMaster, a former National Security Adviser,
said “The liberation of the rail hub of Lymon … could turn into a cascading series of
defeats of Russian forces. ” He went on to say the might be the “precipice of the
collapse of the Russian army in Ukraine, a moral collapse… ” I think it's very important
also to understand that these forces that are in full retreat now out of Lyman were really
the first round of the mobilization of what we call reservists. … Those forces were
hastily trained, thrown into that front, and that’s who … are collapsing right now. The
new conscripts are also believed to suffer from alcoholism on a large scale, further
diminishing their effectiveness.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to break through Russian defenses, not just in the east
but also approaching the important southern city of Kherson. Numerous postings on
social media show Ukrainian troops displaying flags in various villages in the Kherson
region. “If Kherson falls … it will be a political disaster destabilizing the state. He cannot
find a way out.” tweeted retired Gen. Barry McCaffrey, a former U.S. commander.
McCaffery and others continue to warn that, with his back to the wall and losing on
every front, Putin will become more desperate and dangerous and more likely to
consider … a low-yield nuclear weapon…” That could spark a mutiny within the
Russian military.

Many, if not most, of Russia’s military establishment are believed to be
firmly opposed to the use of even the lowest-grade tactical nuclear weapons.

The next two weeks will be telling. Something big is about to happen.