The Fetterman Conundrum
As the 2022 U.S. Senate election between Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz and Democrat John Fetterman approached, I wrote: “If John Fetterman is elected to the U.S. Senate, he will make Bernie Sanders look like Ted Cruz.” Millions of Democratic voters thought the same.
We were all wrong.
Pennsylvania’s now senior U.S. Senator has become an outlier in Washington, D.C. On most issues he continues to hew the progressive line. But he has also shown a willingness to stray from that line if he believes it is wrong. Senator Fetterman has been a strong defender of Israel. He believes our borders should be secure. He has refused to participate in his party’s government shut down antics saying the government should never be shut down. He has supported President Donald Trump’s cabinet picks. He even (gasp) had dinner with the president.
Such independence is not well regarded in Washington – by either party – but especially by the Left which views any deviation from their radical progressive positions as apostacy. The result is that Fetterman is being pilloried by his own party. His poll numbers among Democrats have tanked; but his approval among Republicans has steadily grown.
Speculation is already intense as to Fetterman’s fate in 2028 when, should he want to remain in office, he will face what is shaping up to be a brutal re-election campaign.
There are three options:
Fetterman could run for re-election in the Democratic primary. To a significant degree those primaries have become dominated by the far-Left wing of the party – those who feel betrayed by the senator. His only real chance of being nominated is in a multi-candidate field that splits the anti-Fetterman vote. Several potential candidates are already dipping their toes in the political waters, so a large field of candidates is possible.
Republican State Party Chairman Greg Rothman raised eyebrows recently when he said having Fetterman switch parties and run as a Republican is “not off the table.” It is true that Fetterman’s job approval with Republican voters is higher than among Democrats, but the GOP’s conservative wing seems unlikely to embrace a candidate who overall has a solid progressive voting record.
The last Pennsylvania U.S. Senator to switch parties was Arlen Specter. For decades Specter had vexed the conservative wing of his party. But, employing what became known as the “Specter shuffle,” Specter would tilt left for two or three years after each election then tack back to the middle just enough to secure renomination.
That worked until it didn’t. In 2010 facing a potential losing primary against former congressman Pat Toomey, Specter switched parties. He earned the endorsement of state Democratic leaders, but the grassroots wasn’t about to embrace a former Republican. He lost the primary to Congressman Joe Sestak, who then was defeated by Toomey in the General Election.
Perhaps the most intriguing option available to Fetterman is to ditch both political parties and run as an independent. You likely must go back before the Civil War to find a candidate who ran and won statewide on other than the Democratic or Republican ticket. But then again Pennsylvanians always re-elected incumbent governors – until they didn’t.
There are two independents currently serving in the U.S. Senate. Vermont’s Bernie Sanders and Angus King of Maine. Their “independence” only goes so far as both caucus with Senate Democrats. Former U.S. Senator Krysten Sinema of Arizona and West Virginia’s Joe Manchin both became independents, but only after having been re-elected as Democrats. Connecticut Senator Joe Liberman, who like Fetterman angered his party by charting his own course, was prior to Sanders and King the last independent elected to the U.S. Senate.
It would be interesting to see if Fetterman could retain enough Democratic support, coupled with Republicans voters who no longer view him as unpalatable to win. Keeping in mind the most rapidly growing group of voters in Penn’s Woods are independents and a case for a viable independent candidacy can be made.
Fetterman would also benefit from the fact Pennsylvania is a non-run-off state. This means in a General Election the winning candidate is not required to ever get over 50% of the vote – the winning candidate must simply get the most votes. It could take less than 40% of the vote to win.
All of this of course is speculation – and we do have the 2026 mid-terms lying right in front of us. The only thing that can be said with certainty is that with John Fetterman in the mix it won’t be boring.
(Lowman S. Henry is Chairman & CEO of the Lincoln Institute and host of the weekly American Radio Journal and Lincoln Radio Journal. His e-mail address is [email protected].)
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