F&M Poll: Trump Motivating Force in Upcoming Mid-Term Elections

Member Group : G. Terry Madonna & Michael Young

The 27th consecutive year of polling in Pennsylvania

Below are the highlights of the September 2018, Franklin & Marshall College Poll. Complete results can be found at http://www.fandm.edu/fandmpoll
• Six in ten (60%) of the state’s registered voters are “very interested” in the 2018 mid-term elections; more Democrats (64%) than Republicans (58%) or independents (49%) say they are “very interested.”

• Half (50%) of the state’s registered voters in Pennsylvania believe Governor Tom Wolf is doing an “excellent” or “good” job as governor, which is which is similar to his ratings in prior surveys.

• Two in five (42%) registered voters believe Senator Bob Casey is doing an “excellent” or “good” job as the state’s  U.S. Senator, which is similar to his ratings in recent surveys.

• About two in five (37%) registered voters in Pennsylvania believes President Donald Trump is doing an “excellent” or “good” job as president, which is similar to his ratings in the August survey.

• More registered voters prefer the Democratic candidate for U.S. House (51%) than the Republican candidate for the U.S. House (36%). Among likely voters, more favor a Democrat (49%) than a Republican (38%) for the U.S. House.

• President Trump continues to be an essential motivating force in the upcoming mid-term elections. Three in four (74%) of those who plan to vote for a Democratic congressional candidate are casting their ballot mainly as a vote against President Trump and Republicans in Congress; while four in five (80%) of those who plan to vote for a Republican candidate are casting their ballot mainly as a vote to support President Trump and the Republicans in Congress.

• Governor Wolf (52%) currently leads his Republican challenger Scott Wagner (30%) among likely voters, with (17%) remaining undecided.

• Senator Casey (50%) currently holds a lead over his Republican challenger, Representative Lou Barletta (33%), among likely voters, (15%) remaining undecided.

This survey reflects interviews with 545 Pennsylvania registered voters, including 256 Democrats, 213 Republicans and 76 Independentsconducted by the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College from September 17-23, 2018. The sample error for this survey is+/- 6.1 percentage points.  A complete methodological statement can be found in the full report.

The Franklin & Marshall College Poll is produced in conjunction with the Philadelphia Daily News, WGAL-TV (South Central PA), Pittsburgh Tribune Review, WTAE-TV (Pittsburgh), WPVI-TV6/ABC (Philadelphia), Times-Shamrock Newspapers, Harrisburg Patriot-News/PennLive, LNP media group, and the Reading Eagle. It may be used in whole or in part, provided any use is attributed to the college.