Wagner Posts Big Lead in PA Governor Race

Member Group : News Releases

For Immediate Release – April 24, 2017

Contact: Ryan Shafik:
[email protected]

Wagner holds sizable lead in GOP primary in both 2-way and 3-way ballot tests against potential opponents. Wagner has a rapidly growing statewide base despite never running statewide.

(YORK, Pa.) – Today the Scott Wagner for Governor campaign committee released findings from a recent internal poll conducted by the campaign on the state of the 2018 GOP Gubernatorial Primary.

The poll, conducted by McLaughlin and Associates, confirmed what the campaign has been hearing and seeing on the ground since Senator Wagner announced his candidacy.

Republican voters across the state are lining up in support of Scott Wagner’s candidacy.

"Scott Wagner is the clear front-runner in the 2018 GOP Gubernatorial Primary. He holds sizable leads among all opponents in different matchup tests and has a solid base of support across the Commonwealth that no other candidate can lay credit to," explains Campaign strategist Ryan Shafik.

The exact findings can be found in the pollster memo below or by clicking here – [L[http://wagnerforgov.com/gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PA-Statewide-GOP-Wagner-4-24-17-Executive-Summary_V4-3.pdf[EL]



Scott Wagner is the frontrunner in next year’s Republican primary election for Governor and has room to grow. In a two-way contest, Wagner holds a greater than three to one lead over Paul Mango and in a three-way race with Speaker Mike Turzai and Paul Mango, Wagner’s lead increases to a four to one margin. Wagner is currently well positioned – he has a strong base and a higher vote share with key voter groups.

In a head to head matchup, Scott Wagner leads Paul Mango by almost 30-points, 42% to 13%.

Now, thinking ahead for a moment to the May 2018 Republican primary election for Governor, if that election were held today among the following candidates, for whom would you vote? (Candidates Rotated)

Scott Wagner, of York County 42%
Paul Mango, of Allegheny County 13%
Undecided 46%

Importantly, Scott Wagner possesses the geographical and ideological advantages that are critical to winning a statewide primary election in Pennsylvania:

Wagner leads in the "Big Three" media markets (Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, Philadelphia), which comprise of greater than seven in ten of the vote. With the candidates’ home counties mentioned, as they would appear on an actual ballot, Wagner has an eight point lead in Mango’s home market of Pittsburgh, 37% to 29%. Wagner is leading Mango by a significant five to one margin in the Philadelphia market.

Among self-described conservatives, who make up nearly three in four of the
Republican primary electorate, Wagner’s lead over Mango increases to 31-points.

With the highest propensity voters (those who have voted in all four of the last even year Republican primaries), Wagner’s vote share hits nearly 50%.

In a three-way match up, Scott Wagner leads the field by almost 30-

Now, thinking ahead for a moment to the May 2018 Republican primary election for Governor, if that election were held today among the following candidates, for whom would you vote? (Candidates Rotated)

Scott Wagner, of York County 38%
Mike Turzai, of Allegheny County 10%
Paul Mango, of Allegheny County 8%
Undecided 45%

The same dynamics exist in the three-way race to further demonstrate Wagner’s strengths:

Wagner’s leads hold in the "Big Three" media markets and he is ahead by more in Pittsburgh on the three-way ballot. With the candidates’ home counties again mentioned, Wagner (31%) has a double-digit lead over both Turzai (19%) and Mango (15%) in their home market of Pittsburgh. In the Philadelphia market, Wagner is leading by a four to one margin.

Among self-described conservatives, Wagner maintains his strong lead of nearly 30-points.

With high propensity 4/4 voters, Wagner’s vote share breaks 40%.

RECENT HISTORICAL CONTEXT: It is worth noting that Wagner performs similar to how Attorney General Tom Corbett was performing at this point in the 2010 gubernatorial primary cycle. A July 2009 Quinnipiac University Poll had Tom Corbett at 38%, Congressman Jim Gerlach at 15% and Pat Meehan at 9%. Wagner is already pulling as much support as Corbett, who was then the state Attorney General and had twice run for statewide office, and more than
Gerlach, a well-known sitting congressman in the state’s largest media market. As a first-time candidate for statewide office, Wagner has a unique and broad base of support.

KEY TAKEAWAYS: With over a year until the Republican primary, Scott Wagner is leading decisively and has room to grow. In just a few short months, his campaign for Governor has resonated with Pennsylvanians all across the state and has given him a big head start. Running statewide requires a robust campaign with significant resources and it is clear that Wagner is
already demonstrating the traits of a strong frontrunner and is best positioned to win next May.

Methodology: McLaughlin & Associates conducted a survey of 500 likely May 2018 Republican primary voters in the state of Pennsylvania on April 9th and
10th, 2017. All interviews were administered via telephone by professional interviewers. Interview selection was random and interviews were stratified by county, race, age and gender to correlate with actual voter turnout from previous statewide Republican primary elections. This poll of 500 likely
Republican primary voters has an accuracy of +/- 4.5% at a 95% confidence interval. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations. Totals may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding.

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