Does Virginia Race Hold Much Deeper Problems for Democrats?

Since 1977 Virginia has elected a Governor of the party opposite the President in his first term. Considering that historical fact, a win by Republican Glenn Youngkin over the ubiquitous former Governor Terry McAuliffe should not be much of a surprise. But the Democrats face two serious problems should Youngkin win: 1) losing a race they should win on difficult issues, and 2) confirmation that public polling is significantly underestimated Republican electoral strength.

The first year of a President’s first term is normally dress rehearsal for bad mid-term elections. The party in power is focused on its policy agenda while the party out of power is energized to recover politically.

But Virginia has become markedly more hostile to Republicans. No Republican has won statewide since 2009 and Democratic Presidential candidates have won each contest since 200 with Trump losing to Biden by over 10-points.

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