Public opinion polling is an inexact science. But, then, polling has always been more a political science than the genuine article.
Pollsters got 2016 spectacularly wrong, but they’re still employing the same/similar methods that missed Donald Trump’s victory.
Among other irregularities, polls tend to skew left by sampling more, sometimes substantially more Democrats and left-leaning independents than Republicans and unaffiliated moderates/conservatives.
Lately, though, despite built-in bias, even the most Democrat-friendly pollsters cannot obscure the dramatic drop in President(ish) Joe Biden’s public approval only eight months into his presidency.
Biden’s latest job approval numbers are net-negative, sinking, and, factoring in Democrat-skewed polling practices, are probably worse, perhaps far worse than recent polls suggest.
For example, Biden’s support in consistently Democrat-biased Washington Post/ABC News-sponsored polls dropped from 8 points net-positive in late June to 7 points negative in early September when 51 percent of respondents disapproved of Biden’s job performance and only 44 percent approved, a swing of 15 points in under three months.
Biden’s independent voter support dropped precipitously – 57 percent disapproved – and his support among Democrats also fell from 94 to 86 percent.
The “86 percent” is suspect, because, in another poll, one in five Democrats confessed to feeling buyer’s remorse. A September Zogby Analytics poll reported that 20 percent of Democrats “regret voting for President Biden.”
Note that those are just the Democrats willing to admit error. Others remain inattentive or in denial.
The Post/ABC poll is not alone:
- A Politico-Morning Consult poll found that 62 percent of Americans think the country is on the wrong track under Biden.
- A September YouGov/Economist poll with a D+10 sample showed Biden having only 39 percent approval.
- In late August, even before a suicide bombing killed thirteen American service members, nearly 70 percent of respondents to a Trafalgar Group poll disapproved of Biden’s handling of Afghanistan.
- In a recent Rasmussen Reports poll, 52 percent of likely voters not only condemned his handling of Afghanistan, but think Joe Biden should resign.
A better man would.
Many 2020 voters imagined that electing an elderly, undistinguished careerist who spent most of his adult life in Washington would, as national media put it, restore “dignity,” “normalcy,” and replace a “chaotic” administration with “competent adults.”
But, now, anyone paying attention knows there’s nothing “dignified,” “normal,” “competent” or even “adult” about Joe Biden, his presidency or an administration in which chaos, ineptitude and mendacity are endemic.
Cartoonist Scott Adams tweeted: “Half the country is worried Biden isn’t really in charge, and the other half is worried he is.”
Important nonpolitical economic indicators are equally or more unfavorable: From July to August, the consumer confidence index dropped to the lowest level since the Great Recession.
The erosion of public confidence in Joe Biden is unsurprising.
The nation faces brutal inflation, out-of-control violent crime in major Democrat-governed cities, and a border crisis for which Biden’s policies are largely responsible.
Discerning citizens knew Joe Biden had no campaign-promised “national strategy,” no “bold action” to “end” COVID-19 and “return to normal” long before September 9, the day he cynically pitted Americans against Americans, and announced dictatorial, business-killing, natural-immunity-ignoring, illegal-alien-exempting vaccination mandates and penalties he has no constitutional authority to enforce – and that have little, if anything, to do with public health.
Biden’s overreach is a fabricated “emergency,” a desperate political ploy to eventually claim credit for COVID severity/lethality downturns related to natural immunity, vaccinations and improved treatments and that began before he took office, and to distract citizens from the biggest, most shameful military blunder in American history – the harsh realities of abandoned Americans and dead U.S. service members caused by Joe’s hasty, humiliating retreat from Afghanistan that reestablished a safe haven for Islamist terrorists to plan, train for and launch attacks on America and the West.
Objective Americans view Biden as senescent, weak and aimless, incapable of looking after himself, much less the nation.
Large numbers of Democrats, Republicans and independents of every gender, class, ethnicity and race are justifiably angry. Americans, many for the first time, fear for their personal and their families’ prosperity, their safety, their freedoms, and worry America’s best days may be over.
Biden’s polling condition is terminal, because Joe lacks the intelligence, judgment, energy and charisma to recover.
Joe Biden has a polling problem, because America has a Joe Biden problem.